Backhaul Demand 2015: South Island

kiwibrew Broadband

Cisco’s Visual Network Index forecasts that Internet traffic in New Zealand will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2010 and 2015. They expect the average end user to be downloading almost 14GB per month in 2015, and as a result, they predict average national IP traffic rates of 237 gigabits per second.

Based on the Cisco VNI, population data from Statistics NZ, and fibre maps from Telecom New Zealand, I’ve modeled what I expect to be the basic topology and aggregate peak backhaul demand for the South Island in 2015. Numbers next to each city indicate expected peak demand (calculated at 150% of average demand) in gigabits per second. Each link in the Southern ring will require capacity to transit all traffic in the ring in case of a single link failure. Each link in the Northern ring will require capacity to transit all traffic in both rings. Exit points to North Island cities Levin and Wellington are indicated by arrows in the diagram from Nelson and Blenheim.
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Retail Fixed Line Competition: 2012

kiwibrew Broadband

Participation in the Government’s Ultra Fast Broadband program means change for Telecom New Zealand, and change for the industry as a whole. Once separated, the industry loses a dominant, vertically integrated retail carrier and moves to a market structure where all telecommunications products will be built from components offered by separate commercial entities.

The diagram below shows transit, national backbone, and last mile options available for companies participating in a post-separation world. A competitive retail provider such as Snap will require a relationship with a transit provider, a national backbone provider, and a last mile provider in each market they want to compete in. Alternatively they could approach a company such as TelstraClear for integrated National Backbone + Last Mile products, or Telecom for integrated National Backbone + International Transit products. TelstraClear, with their strong buying power on Southern Cross Cable, and extensive Wellington and Christchurch HFC networks, remains the only provider with a near vertical approach to some markets.
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TCP: Without Local Content, UFB won’t be Ultra Fast

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New Zealanders lucky enough to live near a new Telecom ADSL2+ Cabinet may have download speeds as fast as 20mbps. Those special few on VDSL trials or fibre today could have speeds as fast as 100mbps! Even with these fast connections speeds, users find performance to overseas websites is often very slow.

A lot of the blame for slow International speeds has been directed at New Zealand’s sole direct trans-pacific link, the Southern Cross Cable. New cables to the US and Australia planned by Pacific Fibre and Kordia plan to enter the market to add capacity and lower transit costs. These new cables won’t necessarily help as much as expected.
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Ultra Fast Broadband for Schools – By the Numbers

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The funding of ultra-fast broadband for schools has been a policy aim of the National Government since at least 2008. With the formal introduction of the Rural Broadband Initiative, a goal of 97% coverage was set for schools connected to at least 100mbps broadband. That 97% figure has been repeated often, including in a speech by Stephen Joyce at the 2010 TUANZ Rural Broadband Symposium.

Based on February 2011 statistics from the Ministry of Education, Chorus published data on the Rural Broadband Initiative, and Crown Fibre Holdings releases on New Zealand’s 33 UFB regions, it is evident that that the funding provided by the Telecommunications Amendment Bill will fall short of policy aims, and will leave a significant number of schools and students connected to consumer-grade ADSL connections. The particular schools missing out and their location details are detailed on this blog in an article entitled “Broadband for Schools – Rural Communities Miss Out“. The charts below seek to quantify the problem.
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Broadband for Schools – Rural Communities Miss Out

kiwibrew Broadband, Regulation

With the “Telecommunications (TSO, Broadband, and Other Matters) Amendment Bill“, Government hopes to fund two programmes to deliver broadband to all New Zealanders, with a focus on fibre for schools.

The Rural Broadband Initiative has been awarded to Telecom and Vodafone. Telecom will supply fibre connections to around 750 schools, servicing 74,000 students, and will upgrade around 1000 ADSL cabinets along the way. Vodafone will improve cellular phone coverage, and broadband coverage in areas unreachable by ADSL.

The Ultra Fast Broadband initiative will develop a new fibre infrastructure in New Zealand’s 33 largest cities and towns, over which retail service providers will be able to purchase a wholesale broadband service. Around 1340 schools and 550,000 students should be covered by this new broadband service.

Based on documents released at the conclusion of negotiations for the RBI however, it is apparent that close to 500 470 schools, servicing 114,000 108,000 students, will get no fibre at all through the current process. The MED, in response to questions about these schools, states that they should be able to get access to ADSL2+, and that “A procurement process is likely to commence in 2012-13”. (Updated figures 2011-05-16)
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New Zealand Radiocommunications Map

kiwibrew 3G, Cellular, Radio

The map below plots 19,750 radiocommunications licenses across New Zealand in VHF and UHF bands. These licenses support voice and/or data communications from individual towers to multiple end users. They could be paging, data radio, radiotelephone, or cellular mobile licenses.

A number of extracts from New Zealand’s Radio Spectrum Management license database were taken in March 2011 and combined to form the underlying data set. Only public data were considered – no suppressed licenses are included. Data were normalized to common organisation names – i.e. multiple forms of the same name, or multiple organisation IDs tied to the same limited company were given a common name. Licenses were further tagged with colors to represent some unique commercial operators and operator types. Location data were transformed from NZMG to NZTM2000 – which is assumed to be near equivalent to WGS84, the standard used by Google Maps.
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Feedback on proposed variation (5) to Telecom’s Operational Separation Undertakings

kiwibrew Broadband, Regulation

Dear Minister,

In their 25th March 2011 letter to you, Telecom New Zealand state: “The RBI requires that the RBI services be provided on non-discriminatory and open-access terms – a commitment we are happy to make.” They specifically mention the “rural schools objective” and the “rural community objective”, but not necessarily in relation to the variations sought.

Telecom fails to mention another part the government’s stated Rural Broadband Initiative policy:

(f) The achievement of the RBI will be consistent with the following principles:
(i) making a significant contribution to economic growth;
(ii) neither discouraging, nor substituting for, private sector investment;
(iii) maximising the use of existing infrastructure; and
(iv) ensuring affordable broadband services.

It is apparent based one particular example noted in Telecom’s variation request that although Telecom is willing to meet the rural schools objective and the rural community objective, they are not willing to do so in a manner consistent with the principles stated above.
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